Living on the Edge

Humans are used to living on the edge and have a tendency to deny their own involvement in causing calamities. Despite much information to the contrary, too many humans pretend that unusual weather events are "Acts of God" and that things will return to normal next year. But will they? And what is normal?

The adverse effect of climate change depends on where you live. Low lying coastal areas, already vulnerable to ocean storms, tsunamis and floods will become uninhabitable with increasing sea levels. The vulnerable zone includes large coastal cities. In the US, New Orleans was the first to go. New York, Miami, Boston and San Francisco are vulnerable cities. More expansive high risk zones exist around flood prone rivers that overflow when rain storms dump excess water on land that has been stripped of protective vegetation. Increased rates of rainfall that overwhelm river capacities are observed in warming climate zones.

A friend challenged me on the phone during a cold, snowy week in December - she said, "It doesn't feel like global warming to me!" We didn't have the common vocabulary of complex systems and I tried to explain that we have to go beyond naïve linear models and appreciate that if complex systems such as the atmosphere, the oceans, and land ecosystems become unstable, they will be more turbulent; the extremes may become more extreme and new climatic conditions may replace patterns that we are used to.

Much attention has been paid to estimating and predicting the average temperature increase of the atmosphere as a whole. Long-term predictions are best guesses and may be misleading. Local heating effects are observable as wind and rain -- more heat produces more extreme weather events. Heat drives weather and increased heat means increased turbulence in the atmosphere. The consequences vary with the distribution of this extra heat and its effect on ocean and air circulation patterns. We can accept paradoxical weather results as the extra heat makes weather systems more turbulent and changes air and water circulation patterns. The main concern should be the effect of heat retention on local climates right now.

It is possible to imagine increasingly anomalous weather and increasing loss of life and property from greenhouse gas accumulation with little or no change in the average temperature of the planet, although, we do expect slow progressive increase in average temperatures. You can increase the temperature in some areas and decrease in others and you can alternate - the differential effect will drive storms and precipitation in unusual ways. By the end of 1998, we knew that weather extremes were becoming commonplace and loss of life and property from adverse weather increased.

These more destructive weather events promise to continue. Insurance companies are increasing rates, limiting coverage or going out of business. Hurricane Andrew was the first of the worst weather disasters in US history that caused 16.5 billion dollars in insured loses, bankrupting smaller insurance companies. The UN panel on climate change estimated that windstorm damage increased from $500 million in the 60's to over $11 billion in the 90's and the annual bill in the 21st century may be hundreds of billions of dollars per year. Before 1987, storms had never caused insured loses exceeding $1 billion; there have been a succession of $100 billion-plus disasters since. Hurricane Katrina that destroyed New Orleans in 2005 killed 1300 people, left one million homeless with direct costs estimated at $125 billion.

The November 1997 Kytoto meeting to determine emissions policy for the countries of the world has been a disappointment and only confirmed our basic understanding that governments are not going to act responsibly. Maurice Strong who headed the 1992 Rio Earth Summit stated at the Kyoto conference; "Overall we haven't made the fundamental course of change promised in Rio. The process of deterioration has continued and the forces that drive that deterioration have continued. Five years later, the challenge is even greater." At the Rio summit 153 nations signed treaties to reduce global warming, save endangered species and foster sustainable development.

The release of the 2007 report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is a milestone that confirms a scientific consensus that we have a problem of catastrophic proportions and mandates the necessity of achieving a political consensus that that will lead to real and effective action in all the countries on planet earth.

There is no need to wait until 2050 to find out what is going to happen. Political action should swift and definitive, but of course, it is not. The task of leading fellow humans from a self-destructive path requires intelligent and compassionate superheroes. In Dec. 2007, Al Gore shared a Nobel Prize with the IPCC, a United Nations agency. In his acceptance speech, Gore, made another passionate plea of recognition of the climate crisis and the need for cooperative action across the planet. Gore warned that “we, the human species, are confronting a planetary emergency — a threat to the survival of our civilization that is gathering ominous and destructive potential: we have the ability to solve this crisis and avoid the worst of its consequences, if we act boldly, decisively and quickly.”

One correction is that humans and other animals are in peril, not the planet. Planet Earth is a work in progress that changes continuously. No environment has been stable over the stretch of millions of years and climates change without human help. The problem today is that human activities have changed the environment quickly and that current arrangements to supply clean air, good food and clean water are not sustainable.

At the international climate conference, the world’s nations committed to negotiating a new accord by 2009 that cut in half emissions of heat-trapping gases by 2050.  While the commitment is welcome, humans remain critical of each other, disputatious and focused on self interest. The negotiations that might lead to an accord will not be a smooth path and even if an accord is achieved, compliance with its terms will not be enforceable.  

Disruptions in ecosystems, economic systems, political systems are inevitable. Changes in human behavior must come from all people who sense danger, seek to understand their options and change spontaneously. The same issues come up in personal and public health concerns - constructive change is required.

Ignorance and denial obstruct constructive change; wishful thinking and fantasy solutions become more popular. Self-interest and greed dominate the political process.

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Surviving Human Nature

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Surviving Human Nature is published by Persona Digital Books. All rights to reproduction by any means are reserved. We encourage readers to quote and paraphrase topics from Surviving Human Nature  published online and expect proper citations to accompany all derivative writings. The author is Stephen Gislason. The date of publication is 2010.The URL to the book description is http://www.personadigital.net/Persona/Survival/